Modeling food supply chains in Niger: a strategic lever to anticipate food crises
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Abstract
Niger faces recurring food crises, worsened by climate shocks, logistical weaknesses, regional insecurity, and poor coordination among actors within the food system. In this context, modeling the food supply chain emerges as a strategic lever to anticipate disruptions and improve the resilience of the national food security system. The general objective of this research is to analyze and model the food supply chain in Niger in order to propose a strategic tool capable of effectively anticipating food crises and guiding public policies toward more structured and proactive logistical responses. The methodology is qualitative, based on a comprehensive literature review of existing studies, reports, and institutional documents published between 2018 and 2025. No field survey was conducted; however, the documentation reviewed offers a broad overview of stakeholders, logistical systems, and comparable African contexts. The main findings reveal (1) a fragmented supply chain involving interdependent actors; (2) major logistical, climatic, and economic vulnerabilities; (3) weak inter-institutional coordination; and (4) the relevance of simulation models—particularly agent-based modeling (ABM) and robust optimization—to predict crisis scenarios and support decision-making. In conclusion, the study highlights the urgent need to modernize Niger’s food supply chain through the integration of predictive and digital tools for logistics management, while also reinforcing collaborative governance. Modeling proves to be a key driver for anticipation and resilience in the face of structural and situational shocks.
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